Considerations before Vegas part I

ArmFight #40

Arsen Liliev (Russia) vs Richard Lupkes (the USA)

Right arm, +95 kg class (super heavy weight class)

It’ll be 4:2 or… just the other way about

On the 13th January, competitors, who differ a lot from each other, will stand by the table of the six-round duel in Las Vegas. A difference of age (almost 25years) is not all, but it plays a role and Richard wins 55 – 24. Also the height – almost 10 cm in favour of the American. Body weight is again in favour of the player from the USA and it is almost 50kg. Biceps trained with American borad are possessed by Lupkes. Forearms – just like the above ones.

In earlier photos of the American we see an over carved muscularity, large shoulder muscles, over vined forearm muscles well tagged triceps. Additionally – in contemporary takes – a face of the Grey intellectualist wearing glasses. Just an archaeology professor. The younger Russian player does not look like a student of archaeology, he rather suits the Academy of Physical Education. A figure of a strong boy with a tight nape and a little bit too much of the fatty tissue, while he is not a body-builder. His face is smiled and confident.

However they are not the picture that will wrestle by the table in Vegas but muscles. Will the American - despite his advance in years - may simply be stronger? He can be! Of course he can. After all, these one and a half hundred of the weight are muscles based on a solid, broad skeleton, yet he has been "always" naturally strong. In today’s telephone conversation Arsen told your correspondent that now he weighs purely 98 kg and has strength comparable to the one he had at the World Cup last year.

There will be no draw!

I’m telling you, there is no possibility for a tie to take place in this fight. I expect a result of 4-2 in one other other way, for Arsen or Richard. A lot depends on the course of the first clash. As Arsen said in the telephone conversation – he will make every effort to win the first scene. When the result is going to be read "one to zero for Russia" - Arsen will have, firstly, a psychological advantage. But this is not enough for a weapon of a guy who has been fighting at the table longer than the age of his opponent. What else can be in favour of the Russian? Endurance! This will be the key of this fight. However fifty-five years over the hill is not the period of the best possible endurance. This is what can be a chance of the lighter Arsen. Richard may simply not have enough strength, for more than two tough fights. If Liliev wins the first fight, he will surely take away his opponent a lot of advantages. They will rest for a while and approach the table for a second time.

They will caught their hands and what? A hyper powerful attack of Arsen should take place again, win again and it will go all somehow. If not ... Exactly!

I’ve pointed out above how I see the result of the duel. Now it is time for the technical aspects. Arsen is a typical representative of the top roll fighting technique. We have seen and admired the strong fighting set by Liliev, his strong, powerful fingers pulling an opponent into his own technique.

Richard is also a supporter of the top roll and also a powerful side pressure. We saw it at the Arnold Classic in a duel with Denis Cyplenkov. You remember for sure, as Denis's hand literally flew into the side pad, and hardly anyone knew what happened, don’t you? Then, at the Arnold Classic Lupkes demonstrated his strength capabilities, but also - and here is a chance for the opponent - the lack of endurance.

A destructive joy

That is how I titled my description of the fights with Arsen at NEMIROFF WORLD CUP 2011 - when after the victory in the class - Arsen hit the table top so hard that his hand got injured and it eliminated him from competing in the open class. And so he fixe himself! As the organizer of the World Cup, Igor Mazurenko told me later - it was not the first episode of the kind in Arsen’s sports history. He has a few times already "enjoyed" with the win this way. So if there is anyone to bet on the Russian’s victory they must ensure him a conscious bodyguard in the corner of the stage. After each win such a bodyguard should immediately catch Arsen’s arms to prevent any signs of his joy. Interestingly, Arsen is a type of a “start” player, and he does not feel any stage fright, has a strong psyche and the "big world" will certainly not overwhelm him.

Liliev still cannot forgive himself this "joyful" episode. - "I could have been third in the open class at the Cup, if not that excess." - he admits. His hand is almost okay, doctors do not see any dangers. Unless ... Unless it starts to hurt.
 

Arsen Liliev (Russia) vs Richard Lupkes (the USA)

My prediction for Arsen: If the first clash is for the Russian, the second will be, too. The opponent will be eaten on his own ground. In this arrangement, breaking into the 3-0 result will take place in the third clash. In the next clash the Russian will have some rest, and the result will be 3-1 but it will probably be "the beginning of the end" and Liliev will become a winner.

My prediction for Richard: If the first clash is for the American, the second will be, too. The result 2-0 for Richard, successively two wins for Lilieva and 2-2 draw. At this point, after an analysis resulting from four fights - Lupkes will find some miraculous way, and will decide the whole for himself.

And one more thing ... Regardless of the outcome of the duel - Arsen Liliev will be richer in experience and the young age will still be in his favor. Twenty-four years is a great age to start an international career.

PeSzy