Third stage of the Top-8: Alex Kurdecha vs. Rustam Babayev ()
To analyze the possible course of the match, let us recall the fight of Alex at the first stage against Kydyrgali Ongarbaev. Why this but not the last one? The answer is quite obvious: Trubin defeated Alex with toproll, while Kydyrgali won with hook. And almost 100% chance that Rustam will also try to impose the fight in a hook. Of course, this does not mean that Rustam will not load the opponent’s hand with a tightening movement during the fight, but we are unlikely to see the classic toproll movement like in the famous fight against Evgeny Prudnik in 2013 at the start. And the reason for this is the huge difference in anthropometry. The Ukrainian armwrestler cannot afford to attack on toproll, since his hand is simply smaller, the Pole’s hand will almost always be higher, and his pronating toproll movement will not allow him to knock out wrist and gain an advantage for Rustam, but rather put him in a more uncomfortable position. That is, the most likely course of the duel when Rustam attacks with hook, and Alex starts with a toproll.
What is Alex's advantage? We know that he is fast enough, so he has a chance to win the start. Also, he definitely has a very good wrist stretch and pronation, combined with the prevailing anthropometry, this gives him a chance to win.
And what is better for Rustam Babayev? Definitely, Rustam is much stronger in the hook. also with a great deal of confidence, recalling many years of previous performances and fights against much more titled rivals than Alex, we can say that he has much stronger lateral movement and a wrist.
So how should the duel be held for each to win? To win Rustam, he needs to start faster, or at least in the same speed as Alex, which is not an insurmountable task for him. He must start, trying to bring down the tension and pronation of the opponent with lateral movement and the flexor of the hand. And after the Pole’s arm is supinated, he can finish the fight with the second movement. It is worth saying that the struggle in the ties is definitely in favor of Rustam, and it is quite possible that he will try to translate each match into the ties.
As for the scenario for Alex's victory, everything must happen exactly the opposite. Alex is obliged to give up the fight for the front in the center of the table, because there the Ukrainian is much stronger, and before the start pull as much as possible in his strong angle, after the start command, pull as much as possible by penetrating the opponent’s hand, essentially making a kind of technique known as “cobra". At the same time, the Alex's core should always be perpendicular to the arm, otherwise he will have to defend himself against the lateral movement of Babayev with his lateral movement, and in case of failure the hand is supinated, and the fight goes into the hook, also in an uncomfortable position for Alex.
Most likely, if the athletes bring the same form as in the second stage, then the score will be 6:0 or 5:1 in favor of Rustam. But if Kurdecha did a lot of work on his technical training and hone the fight precisely against Babayev, then he has chances to win in a tense fight with a score of 4:2 or 4:3. But one thing we can say for sure, in any case, the struggle will be very spectacular.
The third stage of the top - 8. Tim Bresnan against Dmitry Trubin
Tim Bresnan: I hope Trubin’s pretty muscles are strong!
Sergey Kalinichenko: I will try to return my previous shape
Andrey Pushkar is always with us!